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The lottery, drawn twice

A robot's correct action is often a set, not a point. Representing that set is what an energy landscape does for free and what a regression policy structurally cannot do. The question this instrument answers is not which is smarter. It is what each one costs on the substrate underneath it, and the answer changes depending on which substrate you are standing on.

Predict first

A robot can go around an obstacle to the left or to the right. Both routes appear in the human demonstrations, equally often. The policy is trained by minimising mean squared error against those demonstrations. At run time, what does it do?

The task

One way is a unique answer. Two or more is a set, and the set is what a squared-error loss cannot hold.

Substrate A — von Neumann

Diffusion Policy samples its action by running Langevin steps on a learned gradient field. Each step is one network forward pass, and the steps are serial. Published range is 10–100 NFE per action.

Substrate B — a fabric that settles

The fabric holds the landscape and relaxes into it. Cost does not grow with the number of modes or the number of steps, because there are no steps. What it costs instead is imposing the new state each tick. 100 ms is a measured figure, not an assumption.

The deadline

Visuomotor policies commonly run near 10 Hz with action chunking, and the pressure is upward. Every rung here is reachable by some setting of the two substrate controls, so if a rung is failing, it is failing for a reason you can go and change.

Where these numbers come from
QuantityValueStatus
Denoising steps per action10–100 NFEpublished range
Network forward pass3 msstated assumption
Embedded Ising machine, end to end~100 msmeasured
Ising fabric size2,048 spinsmeasured
Coupling-matrix compression32xmeasured

Diffusion Policy, arXiv:2303.04137 and its literature, which names the 10–100 NFE cost as the key barrier to real-time deployment. The 100 ms is Toshiba's measured system-wide latency, independent of problem size, on an FPGA simulated-bifurcation machine (arXiv:2503.23966). The 3 ms forward pass is an assumption of this instrument and the quantity a reader is most likely to have better information about. Change it and the crossing point moves proportionally.

Regression lands
Energy lands
von Neumann
Fabric